Global Warming: Man or Myth?

Scientists can also wear their citizen hats

COP-19 Warsaw: Arguing Over Who Leaves House Fire First

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house-fire

On reading The US and China Play Chicken Over Climate Change in The Diplomat, I could not help to think of the following analogy:

Mr. Sam and Mr. Wong are two competing businessmen trapped in a house fire along with all of their widgets. Keeping the price of their widgets low is the key to their economic success. It is vital that they, along with their widgets, get out of this fire as soon as possible. This should be obvious to all.

So why are they not rushing out of this house fire? Well, there is a catch. The only exit available requires a fee. The first person to exit pays a little more than the second person to exit.

Sam and Wong continue to argue about who exits first because each wishes to pay the lower second exit fee.

Written by Scott Mandia

November 27, 2013 at 9:12 am

A Tweet-chable Moment

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I would like you to follow my lead and use Twitter to increase science literacy. For the past two weeks, and at least once per day, I have been posting a Tweet that explains a climate science concept. It is harder to do than you think given the 140 character limit. In those cases I post a few in a row to hammer home the concept. A few of these Tweets appear below but you can see all of my Tweets at https://twitter.com/AGW_Prof.

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The idea to use Twitter for climate literacy came from the CLEAN (Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network) mailing list. Here are some others put forward by CLEAN colleagues:

Petroleum we burn pollutes the air and engulfs Earth in heat trapping CO2 disrupting climate. Let’s use sustainable energy instead.

Forests we decimated could have been absorbing excess heat trapping CO2 that disrupts Earth’s climates. Let’s help forests flourish.

I can’t tell you the temperature two weeks from Tuesday, but I can predict its average over the next 5 summers. Ask me to prove it.

Scientists certain burning fossil fuels is heating planet; there are alternatives to carbon fuels but not food & water: be climate smart.

Almost all human contribution to climate change is tied to energy. We need to use far less energy and we can do so in ways that improve quality of life.

Earth’s atmosphere, including its composition of gasses and clouds, acts as a radiative blanket that controls the surface temperature.

Rapid climate change is caused by too much greenhouse gas. We’re causing it. The effects are everywhere. We have the power to change.

Empirical studies & surveys show substantial agreement on smart energy steps is hidden by global warming disputes: http://nyti.ms/ZiThhZ

When it comes to climate science trust the experts. You wouldn’t go to a podiatrist for an opinion on your cancer treatment.

#Education is the foundation that prepares us all for the challenges and opportunities presented by #climatechange. #climateliteracy

The dirty coal, oil, and gas we burn, pollutes the air with heat trapping CO2. Using clean energy to fuel our lives can solve the problem.

We can all make climate-smart choices to help reduce global warming, become resilient to climate-related impacts, AND boost our economy.

If I disagreed w 97% of surgeons, I wouldn’t demand that surgery be guided by mob rule

Aside from # of “patients”, how is climate different?

Damage from our CO2 is NOT $0/ton, but our atmosphere is still a free sewer. Why?

Instead of taxing what we earn, let’s tax what we burn.

Climate changes if radiative forcing changes

Bad if too fast to adapt by migration, evolution

Our CO2 forcing = 10x faster than end-Permian!

It’s not the amount of electricity each light bulb takes, it’s the amount of energy it takes to get that light bulb to light, so everyone CAN help.

80% of emissions are from 20% of the people: us; we must provide the knowledge and knowhow to minimize impacts and help the most vulnerable.

It’s settled science this climate change-we humans have control. Demand climate literacy/action of yourself/others. Climate change: own it!

Earth’s atmosphere, including its composition of gasses and clouds, acts as a radiative blanket that controls the surface temperature.

Scientists certain burning fossil fuels is heating planet; there are alternatives to carbon fuels but not food & water: be climate smart.

I would love to see your Tweets in the comments section. Point me to the URL and I may RT. :)

Written by Scott Mandia

November 19, 2013 at 6:08 am

Humans Pummeling Mother Nature Against the Ropes: Scientists Predict which Round She Gets K.O.’d

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Ironbound-BoxingThere are numerous studies describing the impact of human-caused climate change on various ecosystems. (See my MET103 – Global Climate Change class notes and Impact of Climate Change web page for more information.) Now, a study just published in the peer-reviewed scientific journal Nature (Mora et al., 2013) tells us the timing of when ecosystems will be forced into an alien environment by human-caused climate change. For the world as a whole that year could be as early as 2034 (2047 ± 14 years). Imagine somebody telling you that New York could feel like an alien planet in 21 years. Just like species in nature, we would have to move, to adapt, or end up dead.

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Written by Scott Mandia

October 9, 2013 at 1:00 pm

Published Rebuttal of Akasofu Paper “On the Present Halting of Global Warming”

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Comment on: Akasofu, S.-I. On the Present Halting of Global Warming. Climate 2013, 1, 4–11

Dana A. Nuccitelli, John P. Abraham, Rasmus E. Benestad and Scott A. Mandia

Abstract: A recent article which has set forth new interpretations of Earth’s recent climate history has included some questions of authentic scientific inquiry, particularly related to the impact of ocean oscillations on atmospheric temperatures. In fact, this very issue is currently being investigated by multiple research groups. On the other hand, the claim that a two-century linear temperature increase is a recovery from a recent cool period is not supported by the data. Furthermore, this thermal recovery hypothesis is not connected to any physical phenomenon; rather it is a result of a simplistic and incorrect curve-fitting operation. Other errors in the article are: the claim that the heating of the Earth has halted, misunderstanding of the relationship between carbon dioxide concentration and the resultant radiative forcing, and a failure to account for forcings other than carbon dioxide (such as other greenhouse gases, atmospheric aerosols, land use changes, etc.). Each of these errors brings serious question to the conclusions drawn in the referenced article. The simultaneous occurrence of all of these errors in a single study guarantees that its conclusions cannot be supported and, in fact, are demonstrably incorrect.

Full text available

Also see:

Nuccitelli et al. (2013) Debunks Akasofu’s Magical Thinking, Skeptical Science

Magical climate contrarian thinking debunked by real science, Guardian

Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication – Chris Brierley

Written by Scott Mandia

September 19, 2013 at 10:38 am

Goalposts are not just for sports: Climate deniers use them too!

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The difference is that in sports the goalposts are stationary while climate deniers constantly move them to suit their motives. It appears that even the most ardent climate change deniers are accepting what virtually every publishing climate scientist knows and what every international academy of sciences knows: human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, are causing the planet to warm. And of course, our eyes also tell us. Here in the US and also around the world, we are observing an increase in the frequency and severity of drought, heat waves, fires, and floods. We also see the increasing sea levels which played a significant role in Sandy’s devastation.

So what about those goalposts and climate deniers? Well, the climate deniers are moving their goalposts from their earlier position that humans were not responsible for global warming. Now they accept what experts and our eyes tell us. New goalpost: They will tell you that although the planet is warming, it will not warm very much. (Go ahead and slap your hand against your forehead.)

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Written by Scott Mandia

September 16, 2013 at 5:45 am

Want to Help Our Climate Scientists? It’s Simple: Here’s How

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Thanks to everyone who has supported our growth and development to date. We have had great successes in our first year and half and  we hope to continue to build on those. To continue our programing through the end of the year we need to raise $35,000 this summer and need your help to reach our goal. The money will go to two projects of ours. First, it will retire the debt owed by Dr. Michael Mann for attorney’s fees in the FOIA case over his UVA emails. Read more about the case here and here.

The money will also go towards continuing our program of sending attorneys to scientific meetings. There we offer confidential pro-bono meetings for members of the scientific community. After meeting with an attorney at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference last December, one scientist wrote us:

I was glad to be able to talk to an attorney who deeply cared about the integrity of the science and helping individual scientists.  I am very grateful to the CSLDF for arranging for these sessions.

We feel that legal defense does not just include blockbuster cases like Dr. Mann’s, but making sure that scientists have the opportunity to discuss their concerns with a legal expert before an issue becomes a problem.

Please consider donating to our summer fundraising drive to make these two programs possible. Donate at http://climatesciencedefensefund.org/. International donors can send a PayPal to info@peer.org (Be sure to put “CSLDF” in the memo box.) You can also receive a t-shirt with your donation by going to: http://climatesciencedefensefund.org/feature/buy-stuff/

Going to the AGU 2013 Fall Conference? If so mark your calendars for Thursday December 12 between 12:30 – 1:30. CSLDF and AGU will be hosting a special brown bag lunch event titled Facing Legal Attack: Scientists Tell Their Stories featuring a panel discussion with Drs. Andrew Dessler, Katharine Hayhoe, Michael Mann, Naomi Oreskes, Ben Santer, and Kevin Trenberth, along with a few legal experts.

More details will be posted as the conference approaches.


Also see:

Global warming games – playing the man not the ball - Guardian

Climate Science Legal Defense Fund Summer Fundraiser - CSLDF Blog

Global warming games – playing the man not the ball - Skeptical Science

Want to Help Our Climate Scientists? It’s Simple: Here’s How - Climate Progress

Twitter Drive-By Shooting: Whew! Just Blanks (As Always)

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So there I was Tweeting about the various observations that show the climate system is warming, when all of a sudden, BLAM! BLAM! BLAM! A few of my factually-challenged Tweeps were taking shots at me. Did I panic? Nah. These Tweeps rarely use real bullets.

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Written by Scott Mandia

July 8, 2013 at 5:10 am

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