Congressman Rohrabacher’s Paper Tiger
Fact: We are overloading the air and oceans with carbon which is causing too much heat to be trapped. Climate change is arguably the most studied scientific issue of the day and virtually every scientist and scientific body agrees that the planet is warming, and the primary cause is the massive emission of the heat-trapping gas carbon dioxide. This overwhelming consensus is driven by the multiple human fingerprints of human-caused warming. In fact, the United States National Academy of Sciences (NAS) recently issued four reports called America’s Climate Choices (2010) that clearly show humans are driving global warming and the impacts already occurring are cause for serious concern. The NAS concludes:
”A strong, credible body of scientific evidence shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems…. Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.”
Enter Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) who has a history of getting the science wrong. On three occasions (Feb 4, 2010, March 10, 2010, and Feb 17, 2011), Rep. Rohrabacher has entered into the Congressional record an open letter signed by over 100 scientists and published as a full page ad in the New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Washington Times, and Los Angeles Times. The letter was addressed to the President of the United States and flies in the face of the scientific understanding of climate change. The letter can be viewed here.
The letter contained 115 signatures and made the following assertions:
- The case for alarm regarding climate change is grossly overstated
- Characterization of the scientific facts regarding climate change and the degree of certainty informing the scientific debate is simply incorrect
- Surface temperature changes over the past century have been episodic and modest
- There has been no net global warming for over a decade
- The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior
So who were these scientists and are they qualified to sign this letter? (Item #4 is an automatic disqualifier in my book because any legitimate expert should know that a decade cannot be used to refute the underlying climate trend. This claim is especially absurd given that the past three decades have been the warmest in the instrumental record!)
Journal database search tools (SCOPUS, Academic Search Premier, Science Direct, and Google Scholar) were used to examine the publications which have relevance to climate science from all of these individuals. Only papers published between Jan 1, 2006 and the present were considered. Work prior to that can hardly make assertions on global warming ‘for over a decade’; more generally, there has been an explosion of knowledge about the Earth’s climate system in these last 5 1/2 years. Total post-2005 publications are listed in the column below titled Climate Papers. (Note: Energy & Environment publications were not included nor were conference papers. 1/2 point was given to a paper that was only marginally related to climate science.)
The result: Only nine of these 115 (8%) have published recent research which give evidence that they have some expertise in at least one of areas 3, 4, or 5. These nine are highlighted below in bolded red. NONE have expertise in all three of these areas. Worse, more than 2/3 of the signers have NO RECENT PAPERS related to climate yet they felt qualified to sign a letter addressed to the President of the United States to tell him he is wrong and the science is wrong – the arrogance!
Some of the other 106 scientists have studied various environmental aspects of climate change on lakes or forests, or the climate during prehistoric times, but with no expertise bearing on items 3,4,and 5. Many of the 115 are not themselves scientists in any meaningful sense, though they may have written opinion pieces in various places. This is not to say that there are not distinguished scientists among the remainder:
Dr. Ivar Giaever is a Nobel Laureate of 1973 in Physics. This was awarded jointly to Dr. Giaver, Leo Esaki, and Brian Josephson for work in “tunneling” effects in solid physics. This has no connection with climate science and Dr. Giaver’s interests turned to biophysics and he has no record at all of work related to climate science nor is he active in research.
Dr. Wil Happer is a distinguished physicist at Princeton and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. Although he has testified before Congress concerning climate science, his expertise is given on his web page as follows: We’re a small research group investigating the fundamental interactions between atoms, molecules and light. More specifically, we’re interested in the mechanisms that limit the performance of optical pumping systems, such as atomic clocks, magnetometers, and laser guide-star adaptive optics systems. Our projects are all tabletop experiments involving lasers and warm vapor cells. This hardly qualifies him as an expert on climate science.
Dr. Ian D. Clark is a productive active researcher in chemical geography, but an examination of his 21 publications shows that none of them have any direct relevance to items 3, 4, or 5.
It is my opinion that by any reasonable standard, the collective judgment of the 116 individuals who signed this letter cannot be compared with the judgment of the panels who contributed to the recent series of National Academy of Sciences reports on these matters. If Congress wants informed, competent advice on these matters they should study these reports and call as witnesses those who contributed to them.
Not surprisingly, Rep. Rohrabacher’s letter is merely a paper tiger.
Last Name | First, Init | Degree | Affiliation | Climate Papers |
Lupo | Anthony, R. | PhD | Univ. of Missouri | 12 |
Humlum | Ole | PhD | Univ. of Oslo | 10 |
Lindzen | Richard S. | PhD | MIT | 10 |
Tonni | Eduardo P. | PhD | Museo De La Plata, (Argentina) | 8 |
Leavitt | Peter R. | PhD | University of Regina | 7.5 |
Douglass | David, H | PhD | Univ. Rochester | 6 |
Legates | David R. | PhD | Univ. of Delaware | 5.5 |
Khandekar | Madhav | PhD | Climate Consultant Markham | 5 |
Gray | William M. | PhD | Colorado State Univ. | 4 |
Malmgren | Bjorn | PhD | Goteburg University (emeritus) | 4 |
Spencer | Roy W | PhD | Univ. Alabama, Huntsville | 4 |
Taylor | George H. | MS | former Oregon State Climatologist | 3.5 |
Herman | Ben | PhD | Univ. of Arizona (retired) | 3 |
Kramm | Gerhard | PhD | Univ. Alaska | 2.5 |
Ridd | Peter | PhD | James Cook Univ, Aust. | 2.5 |
Akasofu | Syun | PhD | Univ. Alaska Faribanks | 2 |
Armstrong | J. Scott | PhD | University of Pennsylvania | 2 |
Copper | Paul | PhD | Laurentian Univ. (emeritus) | 2 |
Essex | Christopher | PhD | Univ. Western Ontario | 2 |
Gerhard | Lee C | PhD | Kansas Geologist | 2 |
Gerlich | Gerhard | PhD | Technische Universitat Braunschweig | 2 |
Karlen | Wibjorn | PhD | Stockholm University | 2 |
Kauffman | Joel | PhD | Univ. Sci. Philadelphia | 2 |
Michaels | Patrick, J. | PhD | Univ. of Virginia | 2 |
Morner | Nils-axel | PhD | Stockholm University | 2 |
Ollier | Cliff D | Dsci | Univ. Western Aust. | 2 |
Paltridge | Garth W | PhD | Univ. Tasmania | 2 |
Ashworth | Robert A | Clearstack LLC | 1 | |
Essenhigh | Robert H | PhD | Ohio State | 1 |
Hertzberg | Martin | PhD | US Navy (retired) | 1 |
Idso | Craig, D. | PhD | Center For The Study Of Carbon Dioxide And Global Change | 1 |
Idso | Sherwood, B. | PhD | U.S. Dept of Agriculture (retired) | 1 |
Lins | Harry F. | PhD | USGS-IPCC Hydrology & Water Resources | 1 |
Moene | Asmunn | PhD | Former Head, Forecasting Center, Meteorological Institute, Norway | 1 |
Morgan | Richard | PhD | Exeter Univ. | 1 |
Tscheuschner | Ralf, D. | PhD | 1 | |
Walin | Gosta | PhD | University Of Gothenburg, (emeritus) | 1 |
Anderson | Arthur G | PhD | IBM | 0 |
Anderson | Charles R | Phd | Anderson Materials Evaluation | 0 |
Baht | Ismail | PhD | Univ. Kashmir | 0 |
Barton | Colin | CSIRO | 0 | |
Bellamy | David J | 0 | ||
Blaylock | John | – | Los Alamos National Lab (retired) | 0 |
Blick | Edward F. | PhD | Univ. Oklahoma (emer) | 0 |
Boehmer-Christiansen | Sonja | PhD | Univ. of Hull | 0 |
Breck | Bob | BS | TV Weatherman, Fox, New Orleans | 0 |
Brignell | John | PhD | Univ. Southampton (emeritus) | 0 |
Campbell | Mark L. | PhD | Dept. of Chem. U.S. Naval Academy | 0 |
Carter | Robert M. | PhD | James Cook Univ, Aust. | 0 |
Clark | Ian D. | PhD | Earth Sciences, Univ. Ottawa, Canada | 0 |
Cohen | Roger W. | PhD | Fellow, APS; Global Thermostat LLD | 0 |
Corbyn | Piers | MS | Weather Action | 0 |
Courtney | Richard, S. | PhD | Consultant | 0 |
Crescenti | Uberto | PhD | Past-President, Italian Geol Society | 0 |
Crockford | Susan | PhD | University of Victoria | 0 |
D’aleo | Joseph, S. | MS | Fellow, AMS | 0 |
Demeo | James | PhD | Univ. of Kansas (retired) | 0 |
Deming | David | PhD | Univ. of Oklahoma | 0 |
Douglas | Diane | PhD | URS Corporation | 0 |
Ferguson | John K | PhD | Univ. Newcastle | 0 |
Ferreyra | Eduardo | Argentinian Foundation For A Scientific Ecology | 0 | |
Fox | Michael R | Phd | American Nuclear Society | 0 |
Fulks | Gordon | PhD | Gordon Fulks and Assoc. | 0 |
Giaever | Ivar | PhD | Rennselear Emeritus | 0 |
Glatzle | Albrecht | PhD | Sci. Director, Inttas, Paraguay | 0 |
Goodfellow | Wayne | PhD | Univ. of Ottawa | 0 |
Goodridge | James | – | Univ Alabama Emer; Cal State Climogist | 0 |
Gould | Laurence | PhD | Univ. Hartford | 0 |
Gray | Vincent | PhD | New Zealand Climate Coalition | 0 |
Green | Kenneth | D.Env. | Americn Enterprise Institute | 0 |
Green | Kesten | PhD | Monash | 0 |
Happer | Will | PhD | Princeton | 0 |
Hayden | Howard, C. | PhD | Univ. of Connecticut (retired) | 0 |
Hoffman | Doug | PhD | Adjunct prof, U Central Arkansas | 0 |
Huettner | Bernd | 0 | ||
Hutton | A. Neil | Past President, Canadian Soc. of Petrol. Geologists | 0 | |
Itoh | Kiminori | PhD | Yokohama National University | 0 |
Japar | Stephen, M | PhD | Ford Research Laboratory | 0 |
Kaijser | Sten | PhD | Uppsala | 0 |
Kear | David | PhD | 0 | |
Keen | Richard A | PhD | Univ. Colorado | 0 |
Kemm | Kelvin | PhD | 0 | |
Knox | Robert S | Phd | Univ. Rochester | 0 |
Koermer | James P | PhD | Plymouth University | 0 |
Kraus | Wayne | PhD | Univ Oklahoma, Emeritus | 0 |
Kvalheim | Olav | PhD | Univ. Bergen | 0 |
Larsen | Roar | PhD | Univ. Science & Technology | 0 |
Lea | James F. | PhD | PL Tech LLC | 0 |
Leahey | Douglas | PhD | Jacques Whitford LTD, Monction, Canada | 0 |
Maccabee | Howard | PhD | Stanford Medical School | 0 |
Malberg | Horst | PhD | Free University of Berlin | 0 |
Marohasy | Jennifer | PhD | Australian Environment Foundation | 0 |
Marusek | James | US Navy (retired) | 0 | |
McKitrick | Ross | PhD | University Of Guelph | 0 |
Minnich | Timmothy, R. | MS | Minnich And Scotto, Inc. | 0 |
Monce | Michael | PhD | Connecticut Coll. | 0 |
Nowell | David | Msci | Nato Meteorology Canada | 0 |
Peckarek | Alfred | PhD | St. Cloud State Univ. | 0 |
Perkins | Robert A | PE | Univ. Alaska | 0 |
Plimer | Ian R | PhD | Univ. Melbourne | 0 |
Pratt | Brian R | Phd | Univ. Saskatchewan | 0 |
Reinhard | John | PhD | Epix Pharmaceuticals | 0 |
Rose | Curt | PhD | Bishop’s Univ. Quebec, emer. | 0 |
Salonius | Peter | Msc | Canadian Forest Service | 0 |
Sharp | Gary | PhD | Center For Ocean/Climate Resources | 0 |
Sheahan | Thomas P. | PhD | Western Technologies, Inc | 0 |
Simmons | Allen | Author | 0 | |
Super | Arline | PhD | Retired Research Met; US Dept. Reclam | 0 |
Uriarte | Anton | PhD | Universidad Del Pais Vasco | 0 |
Valentine | Brian | PhD | U.S. Department Of Energy | 0 |
Weber | Gerd-Rainer | PhD | 0 | |
Wezel | Forese-Carlo | PhD | Urbino University | 0 |
Wimberley | Edward T. | PhD | Florida Gulf Coast University | 0 |
Zagoni | Miklos | PhD | Central Res Inst for Physics, Budapest | 0 |
Zichichi | Antonio | PhD | President, World Federation Of Scientists | 0 |
(For some perspective, NASA’s Dr. Gavin Schmidt has over 50 climate papers published since 2006, many of which directly relate to items 3, 4, and 5).
What does “net” global warming mean?
grypo
April 12, 2011 at 7:18 am
Scott,
Would love to see these 115 directly compared to the NAS and/or IPCC contributors. It would probably look something like every other assessment of the “consensus” ie 97-99% to 1-3%.
Would be happy to help with such an effort.
Nicholas Berini
April 13, 2011 at 1:33 pm
Nicholas,
I appreciate the offer but it is unnecessary and very time-intensive. You will notice many of the same names on the various petitions. Most of these signers have little to no credibility while those that actually do the research have many, many publications to support their conclusions.
Scott Mandia
April 14, 2011 at 4:39 pm
[…] […]
The Climate Change Debate Thread - Page 670
April 13, 2011 at 2:26 pm
(Item #4 is an automatic disqualifier in my book because any legitimate expert should know that a decade cannot be used to refute the underlying climate trend. This claim is especially absurd given that the past three decades have been the warmest in the instrumental record!)
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
I was disappointed by the incompleteness of the above answer:
Claiming the past decade showed no upward trend is ignoring that the claim was made on the basis of Surface Sea Temperatures, consisting of the statical trick of picking one freakish extreme temperature event as its starting point and ignoring the preceding trend.
It also ignores that heat has continued to accumulate within the oceans.
~ ~ ~
For more detailed information visit:
SkepticalScience.com
“3 levels of cherry picking in a single argument”
“Did global warming stop in 1998?”
among other informative articles
citizenschallenge
April 14, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Sorry Professor Mandia,
I do appreciate you know light-years more about these details than I do. Still I wish more could be done to underscore the shear dishonestly of the warming-stopped claim.
peter
citizenschallenge
April 14, 2011 at 3:08 pm
[…] Of the seven authors of the Cato Counterfeit Report only five have any publications and two have dubious backgrounds. There really is no comparison between the authors of the real report from USGCRP and the authors of the fake report. (Cato Institute has a history of documents with few real experts named. See: Congressman Rohrabacher’s Paper Tiger.) […]
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October 22, 2012 at 5:46 am