Congressman Rohrabacher’s Paper Tiger

Fact: We are overloading the air and oceans with carbon which is causing too much heat to be trapped.  Climate change is arguably the most studied scientific issue of the day and virtually every scientist and scientific body agrees that the planet is warming, and the primary cause is the massive emission of the heat-trapping gas carbon dioxide.  This overwhelming consensus is driven by the multiple human fingerprints of human-caused warming.  In fact, the United States National Academy of Sciences (NAS) recently issued four reports called America’s Climate Choices (2010) that clearly show humans are driving global warming and the impacts already occurring are cause for serious concern.  The NAS concludes:

”A strong, credible body of scientific evidence shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems…. Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.”

Enter Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) who has a history of getting the science wrong.  On three occasions (Feb 4, 2010, March 10, 2010, and Feb 17, 2011), Rep. Rohrabacher has entered  into the Congressional record an open letter signed by over 100 scientists and published as a full page ad in the New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Washington Times, and Los Angeles Times.  The letter was addressed to the President of the United States and flies in the face of the scientific understanding of climate change. The letter can be viewed here. 

The letter contained 115 signatures and made the following assertions:

1. The case for alarm regarding climate change is grossly overstated
2. Characterization of the scientific facts regarding climate change and the degree of certainty informing the scientific debate is simply incorrect
3. Surface temperature changes over the past century have been episodic and modest
4. There has been no net global warming for over a decade
5. The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior

So who were these scientists and are they qualified to sign this letter?  (Item #4 is an automatic disqualifier in my book because any legitimate expert should know that a decade cannot be used to refute the underlying climate trend.  This claim is especially absurd given that the past three decades have been the warmest in the instrumental record!)

Journal database search tools (SCOPUS, Academic Search Premier, Science Direct, and Google Scholar)  were used to examine the publications which have relevance to climate science from all of these individuals.  Only papers published between Jan 1, 2006 and the present were considered.  Work prior to that can hardly make assertions on global warming ‘for over a decade’; more generally, there has been an explosion of knowledge about the Earth’s climate system in these last 5 1/2 years.  Total post-2005 publications are listed in the column below titled Climate Papers.  (Note: Energy & Environment publications were not included nor were conference papers.  1/2 point was given to a paper that was only marginally related to climate science.) 

The result: Only nine of these 115 (8%) have published recent research which give evidence that they have some expertise in at least one of areas 3, 4, or 5.  These nine are highlighted below in bolded red.  NONE have expertise in all three of these areas.  Worse, more than 2/3 of the signers have NO RECENT PAPERS related to climate yet they felt qualified to sign a letter addressed to the President of the United States to tell him he is wrong and the science is wrong – the arrogance!

Some of the other 106 scientists have studied various environmental aspects of climate change on lakes or forests, or the climate during prehistoric times, but with no expertise bearing on items 3,4,and 5. Many of the 115 are not themselves scientists in any meaningful sense, though they may have written opinion pieces in various places. This is not to say that there are not distinguished scientists among the remainder:

Dr. Ivar Giaever is a Nobel Laureate of 1973 in Physics. This was awarded jointly to Dr. Giaver, Leo Esaki, and Brian Josephson for work in “tunneling” effects in solid physics.  This has no connection with climate science and Dr. Giaver’s interests turned to biophysics and he has no record at all of work related to climate science nor is he active in research.

Dr. Wil Happer is a distinguished physicist at Princeton and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. Although he has testified before Congress concerning climate science, his expertise is given on his web page as follows: We’re a small research group investigating the fundamental interactions between atoms, molecules and light. More specifically, we’re interested in the mechanisms that limit the performance of optical pumping systems, such as atomic clocks, magnetometers, and laser guide-star adaptive optics systems. Our projects are all tabletop experiments involving lasers and warm vapor cells. This hardly qualifies him as an expert on climate science.

Dr. Ian D. Clark is a productive active researcher in chemical geography, but an examination of his 21 publications shows that none of them have any direct relevance to items 3, 4, or 5.

It is my opinion that by any reasonable standard, the collective judgment of the 116 individuals who signed this letter cannot be compared with the judgment of the panels who contributed to the recent series of National Academy of Sciences reports on these matters. If Congress wants informed, competent advice on these matters they should study these reports and call as witnesses those who contributed to them.

Not surprisingly, Rep. Rohrabacher’s letter is merely a paper tiger. 

 

Last Name	First, Init	Degree	Affiliation	Climate Papers
Lupo	Anthony, R.	PhD	Univ. of Missouri	12
Humlum	Ole	PhD	Univ. of Oslo	10
Lindzen	Richard S.	PhD	MIT	10
Tonni	Eduardo P.	PhD	Museo De La Plata, (Argentina)	8
Leavitt	Peter R.	PhD	University of Regina	7.5
Douglass	David, H	PhD	Univ. Rochester	6
Legates	David R.	PhD	Univ. of Delaware	5.5
Khandekar	Madhav	PhD	Climate Consultant Markham	5
Gray	William M.	PhD	Colorado State Univ.	4
Malmgren	Bjorn	PhD	Goteburg University (emeritus)	4
Spencer	Roy W	PhD	Univ. Alabama, Huntsville	4
Taylor	George H.	MS	former Oregon State Climatologist	3.5
Herman	Ben	PhD	Univ. of Arizona (retired)	3
Kramm	Gerhard	PhD	Univ. Alaska	2.5
Ridd	Peter	PhD	James Cook Univ, Aust.	2.5
Akasofu	Syun	PhD	Univ. Alaska Faribanks	2
Armstrong	J. Scott	PhD	University of Pennsylvania	2
Copper	Paul	PhD	Laurentian Univ. (emeritus)	2
Essex	Christopher	PhD	Univ. Western Ontario	2
Gerhard	Lee C	PhD	Kansas Geologist	2
Gerlich	Gerhard	PhD	Technische Universitat Braunschweig	2
Karlen	Wibjorn	PhD	Stockholm University	2
Kauffman	Joel	PhD	Univ. Sci. Philadelphia	2
Michaels	Patrick, J.	PhD	Univ. of Virginia	2
Morner	Nils-axel	PhD	Stockholm University	2
Ollier	Cliff D	Dsci	Univ. Western Aust.	2
Paltridge	Garth W	PhD	Univ. Tasmania	2
Ashworth	Robert A		Clearstack LLC	1
Essenhigh	Robert H	PhD	Ohio State	1
Hertzberg	Martin	PhD	US Navy (retired)	1
Idso	Craig, D.	PhD	Center For The Study Of Carbon Dioxide And Global Change	1
Idso	Sherwood, B.	PhD	U.S. Dept of Agriculture (retired)	1
Lins	Harry F.	PhD	USGS-IPCC Hydrology & Water Resources	1
Moene	Asmunn	PhD	Former Head, Forecasting Center, Meteorological Institute, Norway	1
Morgan	Richard	PhD	Exeter Univ.	1
Tscheuschner	Ralf, D.	PhD		1
Walin	Gosta	PhD	University Of Gothenburg, (emeritus)	1
Anderson	Arthur G	PhD	IBM	0
Anderson	Charles R	Phd	Anderson Materials Evaluation	0
Baht	Ismail	PhD	Univ. Kashmir	0
Barton	Colin		CSIRO	0
Bellamy	David J			0
Blaylock	John	–	Los Alamos National Lab (retired)	0
Blick	Edward F.	PhD	Univ. Oklahoma (emer)	0
Boehmer-Christiansen	Sonja	PhD	Univ. of Hull	0
Breck	Bob	BS	TV Weatherman, Fox, New Orleans	0
Brignell	John	PhD	Univ. Southampton (emeritus)	0
Campbell	Mark L.	PhD	Dept. of Chem. U.S. Naval Academy	0
Carter	Robert M.	PhD	James Cook Univ, Aust.	0
Clark	Ian D.	PhD	Earth Sciences, Univ. Ottawa, Canada	0
Cohen	Roger W.	PhD	Fellow, APS; Global Thermostat LLD	0
Corbyn	Piers	MS	Weather Action	0
Courtney	Richard, S.	PhD	Consultant	0
Crescenti	Uberto	PhD	Past-President, Italian Geol Society	0
Crockford	Susan	PhD	University of Victoria	0
D’aleo	Joseph, S.	MS	Fellow, AMS	0
Demeo	James	PhD	Univ. of Kansas (retired)	0
Deming	David	PhD	Univ. of Oklahoma	0
Douglas	Diane	PhD	URS Corporation	0
Ferguson	John K	PhD	Univ. Newcastle	0
Ferreyra	Eduardo		Argentinian Foundation For A Scientific Ecology	0
Fox	Michael R	Phd	American Nuclear Society	0
Fulks	Gordon	PhD	Gordon Fulks and Assoc.	0
Giaever	Ivar	PhD	Rennselear Emeritus	0
Glatzle	Albrecht	PhD	Sci. Director, Inttas, Paraguay	0
Goodfellow	Wayne	PhD	Univ. of Ottawa	0
Goodridge	James	–	Univ Alabama Emer; Cal State Climogist	0
Gould	Laurence	PhD	Univ. Hartford	0
Gray	Vincent	PhD	New Zealand Climate Coalition	0
Green	Kenneth	D.Env.	Americn Enterprise Institute	0
Green	Kesten	PhD	Monash	0
Happer	Will	PhD	Princeton	0
Hayden	Howard, C.	PhD	Univ. of Connecticut (retired)	0
Hoffman	Doug	PhD	Adjunct prof, U Central Arkansas	0
Huettner	Bernd			0
Hutton	A. Neil		Past President, Canadian Soc. of Petrol. Geologists	0
Itoh	Kiminori	PhD	Yokohama National University	0
Japar	Stephen, M	PhD	Ford Research Laboratory	0
Kaijser	Sten	PhD	Uppsala	0
Kear	David	PhD		0
Keen	Richard A	PhD	Univ. Colorado	0
Kemm	Kelvin	PhD		0
Knox	Robert S	Phd	Univ. Rochester	0
Koermer	James P	PhD	Plymouth University	0
Kraus	Wayne	PhD	Univ Oklahoma, Emeritus	0
Kvalheim	Olav	PhD	Univ. Bergen	0
Larsen	Roar	PhD	Univ. Science & Technology	0
Lea	James F.	PhD	PL Tech LLC	0
Leahey	Douglas	PhD	Jacques Whitford LTD, Monction, Canada	0
Maccabee	Howard	PhD	Stanford Medical School	0
Malberg	Horst	PhD	Free University of Berlin	0
Marohasy	Jennifer	PhD	Australian Environment Foundation	0
Marusek	James		US Navy (retired)	0
McKitrick	Ross	PhD	University Of Guelph	0
Minnich	Timmothy, R.	MS	Minnich And Scotto, Inc.	0
Monce	Michael	PhD	Connecticut Coll.	0
Nowell	David	Msci	Nato Meteorology Canada	0
Peckarek	Alfred	PhD	St. Cloud State Univ.	0
Perkins	Robert A	PE	Univ. Alaska	0
Plimer	Ian R	PhD	Univ. Melbourne	0
Pratt	Brian R	Phd	Univ. Saskatchewan	0
Reinhard	John	PhD	Epix Pharmaceuticals	0
Rose	Curt	PhD	Bishop’s Univ. Quebec, emer.	0
Salonius	Peter	Msc	Canadian Forest Service	0
Sharp	Gary	PhD	Center For Ocean/Climate Resources	0
Sheahan	Thomas P.	PhD	Western Technologies, Inc	0
Simmons	Allen		Author	0
Super	Arline	PhD	Retired Research Met; US Dept. Reclam	0
Uriarte	Anton	PhD	Universidad Del Pais Vasco	0
Valentine	Brian	PhD	U.S. Department Of Energy	0
Weber	Gerd-Rainer	PhD		0
Wezel	Forese-Carlo	PhD	Urbino University	0
Wimberley	Edward T.	PhD	Florida Gulf Coast University	0
Zagoni	Miklos	PhD	Central Res Inst for Physics, Budapest	0
Zichichi	Antonio	PhD	President, World Federation Of Scientists	0

 

(For some perspective, NASA’s Dr. Gavin Schmidt has over 50 climate papers published since 2006, many of which directly relate to items 3, 4, and 5).