Global Warming: Man or Myth?

Scientists can also wear their citizen hats

Climate Change: It’s the Humans

with 9 comments

On May 26 I offered an online presentation about human’s role in global warming to the American Institute of Chemical Engineers (Virtual Local Section).

Abstract: Warming of the climate system in the modern era is unequivocal and multiple lines of evidence point to human activity, primarily the emission of carbon dioxide, as the cause of most of this warming. The author will illustrate the evidence for planetary warming, highlight the human fingerprints of greenhouse warming, and show why many of the skeptic arguments are either false or highly misleading.

I was asked to present in response to April’s speaker, Dr. Arvid Pasto, who believes that human-caused global warming is a scam. (One can see a January 2011 presentation by Dr. Pasto here: http://files.meetup.com/1666746/AGW_Hoax_General.pdf and his April AIChE presentation here: https://aiche.webex.com/mw0306lc/mywebex/nbrDownload.do?siteurl=aiche)

Dr. Pasto’s April presentation was riddled with mistakes and many of his sources were typical deniers such as: Jo Nova, Will Happer, Anthony Watts, etc. It would have been very easy to go through each slide and point out the mistakes but I chose the high road instead and focused on the science (why reinforce myths by repeating many of them?) I do correct a few of his “mistakes” toward the end of the presentation.

You can view my slideshow in .PDF format without the audio/video.  (There were some technical difficulties with the live stream that did not allow Webex to save the audio and video.  Ugh!)

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Written by Scott Mandia

June 1, 2011 at 6:36 am

Posted in Uncategorized

9 Responses

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  1. Interesting. Good work.

    Hunt Janin

    June 1, 2011 at 8:29 am

  2. I think your last side is really great. It is a point I try to make often in conversation;

    If humans aren’t causing global warming 2 things need to be true:

    1.Something unknown is suppressing the well-understood greenhouse effect (and doing so during massive increases in GHGs).
    2.Something unknown is causing the warming that mirrors the GHE.

    So we accept the well established theory or we accept two unknowns…

    love it.

    Nicholas Berini

    June 1, 2011 at 10:11 am

  3. “Climate Change: It’s the Humans”

    There’s clearly a typo here. This should read
    either:
    Climate Change: It’s the Humans, Stupid
    or:
    Climate Change: It’s the Stupid Humans

    I particularly like this analogy in your presentation:

    98 airline mechanics tell you that they are certain the plane will never make it
    2 airline mechanics tell you that they are not sure about the success of the flight
    1 auto mechanic tells you that he is certain the plane will make it and all the other airline mechanics are wrong

    pendantry

    June 1, 2011 at 11:06 am

  4. [...] above shamelessly snagged from a highly informative PDF slideshow on Professor Scott Mandia’s ‘Global Warming: Man or Myth?’ with no apology. Data wants to be [...]

  5. Global warming is getting worse everyday. We should make all effort to help save our planet. We can use different methods in doing this and try to promote resources like renewable energy.

    renewable sources

    June 3, 2011 at 4:37 am

  6. Scott,
    The AICHE links wouldn’t open.
    Do you have other talks available on MP3 or video?

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
    PS. ~ for what it’s worth ~
    Just I got another essay published in the June, Four Corners Free Press: “Playing Games with Global Warming”

    ~ ~ ~
    “Perhaps the most enduring argument AGW “skeptics” use against the scientific consensus regarding manmade global warming is attacking something called the “Mann hockey stick graph.”

    What’s a hockey stick got to do with understanding global warming? Well, it goes back to the 1980s and 90s…
    read on ;-) . . .”
    http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2011/06/playing-games-with-global-warming-essay.html
    ~ ~ ~

    If it’s worth anything, please do share it.

    citizenschallenge

    June 3, 2011 at 12:28 pm

  7. Excellent presentation by Scott Mandia who is someone that believes in keeping the scientific method, “scientific”.

    “20 of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past 25 years. The odds of this being a natural occurrence are estimated to be one in a billion! (Schmidt and Wolfe, 2009)”

    The fact that there are no non-human causes identified as a possible explanation for global warming, with high confidence, can only suggest that anthropogenic induced climate change is one of the best evidenced inquiries in all of science.

    When scientists showing climate trends starting with a year of a strong El-Nino, it really has to make you wonder two things. First, are they that ignorant in understanding the physics and long term trends that occur in climate. Based on Dr. Pasto May’s presentation it seems that this might be possible since he clearly demonstrated that he doesn’t have a fundamental background as to the differences between climate and weather. This is apparent by his view of the past winter.

    Second, are they just manipulating the data with the hopes that respected climate scientists will turn the other cheek? To start a climate trend with a year of a very strong El-Nino is like walking on a plane with a bag that is inscribed “live ammunition” and actually believing that nobody is going to notice.

    Dr. Pasto May states, “There is no proven relationship between CO2 and temperature (except that often, when it gets hotter, CO2 goes up)” It shocks the conscious that a scientist would even consider using such a vague statement. I would like to get Dr. Pasto’s definition of “often”.

    Perhaps Pasto May can offer some other explanation as what might be the single most important control of global temperature.

    “Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth’s atmosphere. This is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can, and does.”
    Lacis, A.A, G.A. Schmidt, D. Rind, and R.A. Ruedy, 2010: Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature. Science, 330, 356-359, doi:10.1126/science.1190653.

    Mammatocumulus

    June 9, 2011 at 12:40 am

  8. I know a Dr. Arvid Pasto. I doubt there are two because the one was enough! He is a brilliant man and was once a mentor to me. I suspect that in this case, he is out of his element. Possibly out of several elements, including oxygen and carbon in a 2:1 ratio if I am not mistaken. At no point do I see how Dr. Pasto is to be considered an expert on this subject. One would think a combination of statisticians, climatologists, physicists and maybe a random chemists and/or archaeologists would be best suited for an evaluation of the records. If this is the Dr. Pasto that I am familiar with, he is an expert in fractography and high temperature materials. I would think that his opinion in a field that he is unfamiliar with would be taken as that of an amateur scientist. I would be like asking me, a physicist, to design a sports ankle brace. Oh wait, I did design one and the athletic trainers in the Boston colleges that I showed it to loved it, but the marketing department wanted a copy of the AirCast brace. So maybe he has some valid points.

    Personally, as a physicist/statistician, I do believe that much of the current warming is human caused with some mitigation from particulate matter. So, 25 years, I can finally point to something that I can feel comfortable saying “Arvid, you are wrong”.

    Having said all that, Arvid, I would like to know if the you know of anyone hiring?

    Your friend, Kurt

    PS, my brother Bill (GTE and MIT) says “hi”

    Kurt vanSomething

    May 28, 2013 at 3:57 pm


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